By Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe and Nell Mackenzie
LONDON (Reuters) – November was a month of clear winners and losers from Donald Trump’s Nov. 5 U.S. election victory.
Trump trades, essentially punishing tariff-sensitive assets from European exporters to Mexico’s peso and driving investment towards U.S. stocks and the dollar, proved successful. Wall Street has rallied, the dollar gained 2% against rival major currencies and bitcoin surged.
But December could be bumpy, with the Trump trade vulnerable to a potential bond market backlash against fiscal largesse, while tariffs might boost inflation and snarl up supply chains.
“Elevated (U.S.) equity valuations reflect complacency as the more challenging environment we expect is not priced in,” BCA Research said.
Here’s a look at some assets in the spotlight.
1/ CURRENCY WOES
The euro has suffered its worst monthly drop since early 2022, losing just over 3% to around $1.05, on U.S. tariff risks, political upheaval in Germany and France and a sharp regional economic downturn.
Analysts expect more volatility in the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency markets as debate rages about how low the euro can go and whether Trump really will boost the U.S. economy while most others suffer.
Mexico’s peso dropped over 1% against the dollar in November, sterling lost almost 2%. China’s offshore yuan was set for its biggest monthly drop since Aug 2023, down almost 2%.
The key question in FX markets, Monex Europe senior market analyst Nick Rees said, is: “does Trump’s election victory presage a fundamental structural shift in the global economy, or are markets just engaged in a knee-jerk panic?”
2/ BITCOIN, BOOM OR BUST?
If there’s one asset that smashed it out of the park in November, it’s bitcoin.
The crypto currency has surged 37%, briefly eying the $100,000 milestone, on hopes of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under Trump.
The last time bitcoin surged as much was February, when money flooded into new bitcoin exchange-traded products.
So, what’s next? For some in the industry, a rise to $100,000 would mark the niche asset finally going mainstream.
“If bitcoin smashes through the $100,000 level… then even more people could find crypto on their radar,” said AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth.
Others reckon there is a risk of speculative excess, meaning bitcoin’s surge could just as easily be followed by a sharp fall that catches some investors out.
3/ TECH UNDER TARIFFS
Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has scored its best monthly gain since June as Trump ally Elon Musk’s Tesla surged 33% and AI fervour boosted Nvidia even as the chipmaker forecast slower sales growth.
